Trends and Insights for Africa ( TIFA) research firm has just released the presidential opinion poll and Azimio la Umoja one Kenya Alliance coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga and his running mate Martha Karua SC are leading with 42% while Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate William Ruto and his estranged running mate Rigathi Gachagua are trailing with 39%. Fine , going by this opinion poll , non of the candidates have gotten the 50%+1 vote but it is understandable that , this is a scientific research poll and with this in mind , we must have the undecided voters. That means , in August 9th , there will be many surprises and the Raila- Martha ticket is likely to carry the day. This undecided votes will tilt the scale in Raila's favour since , their opponents in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance are making tactical mistakes each day.
There are those who are still bragging that Ruto is leading in Mt Kenya region with 53% aganaist Raila at 26%. Fine !!! Is this the best results Ruto and Rigathi can brag of ? Ruto has been campaigning in Mt Kenya region since 2013 to date. I can't recall the number of political tours in this region. He has attended in a litany of " Economic empowerment" programmes , attending church Harambees , dishing out handouts to women , men and Youths. Infact , he has used more resources in Mt Kenya region alone yet he chest thumps that the populace region is under his chin. If this is so , why has he bw using all this resources to woo the region behind his back? He has been bragging too he is the new Mt Kenya region , yet , he has been expressing his paranoia and insecurity. It we go with he is the new kingpin of GEMA nation , then , he shouldn't be camping in that region from morning to evening as if it is the votes in this region which will determine his PRESIDENTIAL fate.
Raila's Popularity in Mt Kenya region is going much better. It is a region he is started from 0% and as we speak , he is at 26%. This is a tremendous improvement. I haven't projected the undecided votes in this region. Let's be honest with each other for once. In Mt Kenya region , the voter apathy will be very loud. That apathy will work politically infavour of Raila Odinga and Martha Karua to the detriment of Ruto and Gachagua. Sometimes back , Ruto's popularity in Mt Kenya region was at 85% but it is imperative to remember that , during that time , he was running alone in the track. What was making the whole thing laughable is , his coteries especially from Mt Kenya region who rebelled from the Jubilee Party and the government , were bragging how Ruto has swept the whole region. This blindfolded Ruto and he thought that , all GEMA nation voters are his. So far , according to the data from the IEBC , the number of registered voters in Mt Kenya region is 5.7 million votes. In this chunk , Ruto , Raila , Wajackoyah and Mwaure will contest for them. There will be another opponent called voter apathy who will be more lethal to Kenya Kwanza Alliance than Azimio la Umoja.
It is imperative to note that , Ruto will garner more votes in Mt Kenya region that Azimio's Raila Odinga. Fact!! But the most poignant point to make is , Ruto sometimes back especially in 2017 after he rebelled from the government he is serving and started to show contempt to his boss President Uhuru Kenyatta , his popularity was at 85%. Now as we speak , it has reduced to 53% yet he claimed he is the new Mt Kenya region political kingpin. Fallacy!!! If that is so , why is he still struggling to remain afloat in this region? Methinks , he shouldn't be developing paranoia when he sees Martha Karua campaining in this region. He shouldn't be feeling paranoia when he sees Raila Odinga and his Azimio la Umoja contingent campaining in Mūrang'a or Nyeri or Nyandarua or Kiambu Counties etc. He is the GEMA nation " Political kingpin". A kingpin shouldn't develope cold feet when opponents are storming his political bastion. With Ruto , it is different. He is having sleepless nights and loss of appetite when he sees Azimio la Umoja camping in Mt Kenya region.
Azimio's Raila Odinga needs to continue pitching tent in GEMA nation Counties inorder to convert the many undecided votes in his favor. The fact is , there will be very loud voter apathy in this region. That is given but he shouldn't focus on it so much but on the undecided votes. So far , there are no new votes Ruto is hunting in this region. All he needs to do is to safeguard the 53% he has or less by August 9th , he will find himself with 45%. I always wonder where his lieutenants gets the energy they keep on unleashing to their Azimio la Umoja especially those who hails from mt Kenya region. They too well understand that , Ruto needs to get more than 85% of votes from the populace Mt Kenya region. Telling Ruto the contrary is just enjoying him and taking him in a fishing expedition. Let them brave themselves and tell Ruto the Truth for once.
President Uhuru Kenyatta failure to openly for Azimio's Raila Odinga was a stab on the backs of Kenya Kwanza Alliance caramaderie. They wanted him to make such a political blunder and they capitalize on it. President Uhuru Kenyatta isn't that senile to take such a move. Back in 2002 when he was KANU's presidential flag bearer , when the incumbent President Moi joined him in Political rallies in various regions , him( Uhuru) was facing rebellion but when he went alone , there was no hostility. That is when he realize that , a majority of kenyans don't hate him but their resentment is on Moi and his acolytes. Back in his mind , President Uhuru Kenyatta knows that that's why he only opted to clandestinely campaign for Raila-Karua ticket. The slap narrative which Ruto thought he will ride on it politically backfired when at State House in the presence of religious Leaders , he portrayed Ruto as a power hungry fellow who would do anything even if the Country is to burn as long as he gets power.
Ruto has now become the official spokesperson of the IEBC. He wants all the questions Azimio la Umoja is asking to that electoral agency to be first directed to him. I wonder who has given him that role of becoming Chebukati's mouth piece. He is just a presidential candidate like Raila Odinga not unless , the questions Azimio is asking will scuttle his plans to rig the coming general elections. It is very easy to note when Ruto is mooting something sinister. The other day , he claimed that IEBC illegally transferred 800K voters in regions they aren't eligible to vote. He went further that those voters are his. The question we should be asking us is , how did he know those votes are his? Is he privy to the access on the servers? This are questions he is developing butterflies in his stomach when they are being asked. He is defending Chebukati with all his body parts by chiding Raila Odinga. He should be ready to accept the presidential election results and psychologically set his mind for a Raila Odinga Presidency. Period!!!
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