PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES ; DO THEY REALLY MATTERS IN KENYA'S POLITICAL CONTEXT?

 July 26th this year , Kenyans will be glued to their television sets to follow the proceedings of the much awaited presidential debate which will take place at Catholic University of East Africa (CUEA). It is a debate which will bring together , Azimio la Umoja one Kenya coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga , Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate Dr William Ruto , Roots Party presidential candidate PROF. George Wajackoyah and Agano Party presidential candidate Waihiga Mwaure. Already , the Country's political mood is that of an election. Kenya is a very political Country and if there is an election Kenyans are eagerly waiting is this of August 2022. For the first time in this Country's history , GEMA nation will not have an outright presidential candidate especially since the inception of pluralism in Kenya back in 1991.

It is imperative to note with keenness that , the centrality of our Kenya's politics and especially during elections is ethnicity. Fact!!! Don't be hoodwinked by the Inawezekana , bottom up and tingiza mti political narratives aimed at whipping the emotions of the kenyan Voter. Though to some extent , as compared to the previous elections , that of 2002 and this one of 2022 , ethnic tones and balkanization won't take the centre stage like it has been doing in the previous PRESIDENTIAL elections like that of 1992 , 1997 , 2007 , 2013 and 2017. In all these presidential elections , manifestos didn't play any role in dictating the kind of candidates Kenyans will vote for but ethnic balkanization took the lion's share. No wonder , after that exercise , immediately , post election violence has been witnessed and in a big way. This is because, however wins the Presidential seat , he tends to own it at a personal level and to a large extent to be a preserve of the ethnic community that person hails from. This breeds hatred and contempt from the other ethnic nations that reside in Kenya. They feel segregated and alienated from making key decisions on how they want to be governed and also in the allocation of State resources.

The question we should be asking us is , do this presidential debates makes any impact on tilting the undecided voters on where to cast their votes in as far as the presidential election is concerned? So far , though majority of Kenyans have so far made that decision and are just waiting for the D day , there are those yet to make that decision but that doesn't mean that they haven't expressed symptoms of where to cast their votes. There are many who are torn between giving Ruto or Raila their votes. A big chunk of the undecided was dealt with when the leading presidential front runners, that is , Azimio's Raila Odinga and Kenya Kwanza Alliance William Ruto picked their running mates. Raila picked Martha Karua whom many resonated with while Ruto picked Rigathi Gachagua who is many fears and loathes because of his dark history and combative nature of politics. Now , the remaining part of the undecided voters in this presidential election is less than 10% and this is the portion which the presidential debate may influence. 90% of voters who are duly registered by IEBC have already made their decisions.

In African continent , presidential debates always have very minimal impact in giving directions or an opportunity for the polity to make decisions on which presidential candidate to vote for.  Back in the 2013 , Media Council of Kenya , media owner's association and the editors guild conducted the first presidential debate in Kenya at Daystar University. In that debate , the presidential candidates who featured were Jubilee Alliance presidential candidate UHURU KENYATTA , CORD's Raila Odinga , Narc Kenya's Martha Karua , Abduba Dida , Peter Kenneth etc. That debate didn't touch on issues that had altered the voting pattern that had already been decided by voters. The presidential contest back then was between ICC suspects vs opportunists and alleged fixers of the duo ( Uhuruto). Period!!! That PRESIDENTIAL debate was just like the Oscars show. Am not trying to pour cold water on the role the mass media plays in entrenching Democracy and more so during elections, but the behaviors of an ordinary Kenyan voter cannot be altered by a presidential debate.

In the most developed nations and fledgling Democracies , presidential debates are very important and are taken very seriously. For those who watched  the tense presidential debate in the US between Democrat's candidate Joe Biden and the incumbent Republican Party candidate Donald Trump , the later losed his cool. Became abrasive and combative. The moderators of that live PRESIDENTIAL debate had a very long and tough day. Though it played a role in making Trump to lose political support , it only happened in swing States and not in the traditional Republican States. By the end of the day , it was a tight race which made Democrat's PRESIDENTIAL candidate Joe Biden to sweat though he carried the day and emerged as the winner. Now , this is a Country which is enjoying almost 200 years of Democracy and the presidential debates makes very little impact in as far as electing the Country's president is concerned.

In Kenya , let's not lie to ourselves , this presidential debate with have absolutely very minimal impact an noticable for that matter. Kenyans will treat it just as a normal television local program which airs in their television sets each evening. A polity that doesn't even scrutinize various presidential candidates manifestos to point out the hits and misses, how do they know the pointers and key areas to look in a presidential candidate? Already, those who have already made their decisions to vote for Raila Odinga will proceed to do so , whether their candidate performs poorly in that debate or not. Similarly, that will happen to Ruto and the other candidates. It is so DECLASSIFIED. The Kenyan voter was alienated from civic education long time ago. He doesn't even know why she votes. All what she knows is that , it is a constitutional and democratic right to do so.

From what am hearing in this streets , the much awaited debate is that of Running mates that will happen on 19th July. All eyes will be glued on one Rigathi Gachagua who will be taking on 3 women. His usual chauvinistic, narcissistic and misygonistic character will be his greatest undoing. The best thing for Ruto is to convince Rigathi Gachagua to feign illness so as not to appear in that presidential running mates debate failure to which , the tides will turn againaist Ruto. From his end , Ruto is an eloquent debater who has perfected the art of packaging his lies to look like real issues. Gachagua on the other hand , he is only good in heckling and bravado. Nothing else and that's why am fearing , Wajackoyah's Justina , Mwaure's Mrs Mutua and Raila's Martha Karua will outsmart the Rigathi man. The clock is ticking and am busy mending my TV's antenna.