SPIRAL OF SILENCE AND HOW IT WILL SHAPE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN MT KENYA REGION.

 If you have been closely following Kenyan politics especially after the two dominant political figures , DP William Ruto and Raila Odinga picked their running mates , you will not politics took a totally new dimensions. You can't differentiate between those who started campaigning immediately after the 2017 general elections and those who joined the race in the last two months. The ground is levelled. You can't note the difference because , politics is dynamic and a day in politics can be equivalent to a 1000 years. So far , Ruto has been enjoying a massive support and following in the populace Mt Kenya region. In my analysis today , it will confine myself to this region. It is a region which has been critical to one Raila Odinga. Residents here have been rioting in the ballot to vote for one of their own in large numbers inorder to ensure Raila Odinga doesn't win the coveted presidential seat. But that is changing and changing drastically.

The wave that Ruto has been enjoying is now changing and this time round in favour of Raila Odinga-Martha Karua presidential ticket. Thanks to the spiral of silence. If you tend to visit a shopping centre as meet 5 people having a political conversation before Raila snajed his way in Mt Kenya region , chances of all of them talking about Ruto were very high. But that doesn't mean , all of them resonates with Ruto. Chances that it is only two who supports Ruto and the other three supports Raila Odinga were very high. Now , let's dig deep in this spiral of silence. Originally proposed by German Political Scientist and mass communication practitioner Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann in 1974. The spiral of silence is the term meant to refer to the tendence of people to remain silent when they feel their views are in opposition to the majority view on a subject. This theory posits that they remain silent for a few reasons:

1. Fear of isolation when the group or Public realizes that an individual has a divergent opinion from the status quo.

2. Fear of reprisals or more extreme isolation, in the silence that voicing said opinion might lead to a negative consequence beyond that of a mere isolation.

Infact , those who sense that their opinions will meet with approval tend to voice them fearlessly and at times vociferously. Indeed , speaking out in such a way tends to enhance the threat of isolation faced by supporters of the opposing position, reinforcing their sense of being alone. Thus , a spiraling process begins , the dominant camp becoming ever louder and more self confident while the other camp becomes increasingly silently. Importantly ,  the spiral of silence occurs in connection with controversial issues that have strong social and political components. What triggers a person's fear of isolation is the belief that others will consider him/her merely mistaken but morally and Politically incorrect.

The most factual thing is that , in Mt Kenya region , majority of the people who supports Azimio la Umoja one Kenya Alliance coalition party are very silent. They are rarely engaging in Political discourses either with their friends , relatives , in barazas and in bunge za wananchi. And if they do , they first monitor the political affiliation those they are engaging with subscribe to. In my Kenya region , UDA and Kenya Kwanza Alliance supporters are talking boldly without fear. They are chiding those who subscribes to Azimio la Umoja. The most painful this is , majority even those who sing Kenya Kwanza Alliance songs in thr region, if you tend to meet that person and have an upclose and candid political conversation , they will confess that , Ruto isn't feet to rule this country.

Most of Azimio la Umoja one Kenya Alliance coalition party supporters in Mt Kenya region aren't going with the euphoria being painted in Kenya Kwanza Alliance political rallies. They are consuming whst they are being fed by the mainstream media , especially Citizen TV,  Inooro TV and FM , Kameme FM and TV ,l because this are stations with a huge following in the region. Infact , when you see Ruto and his brigade complaining of this media stations of taking side , he knows the kind of destruction they are doing to him especially in Mt Kenya region. The Karua factor has dramatically altered political dynamics especially for Kenya Kwanza Alliance infavour of Azimio la Umoja one Kenya Alliance coalition party.

The many public opinion polls being churned out by Synovate , Nation Media Group , TIFA , Star newspaper etc shows that Raila Odinga and William Ruto are neck to neck in popularity but this will totally change especially when the presidential election will take place. With almost two months shy to the general elections, things are likely to change especially in the mountain region. Already , the choice of Rigathi as Ruto's running mate tilted the opinion of many UDA supporters who had faith in the party but they are not loudly announcing it but silently , they have already shifted their allegiance. Those who shifted their allegiance from Ruto and aren't comfortable with giving Raila Odinga their vote will just keep off from the ballot. Voter apathy in Mt Kenya region will be very loud such that , a Congolese standing on top of Mt Nyarigongo will hear that sound. So far , Ruto is at 50% in Mt Kenya region from 85% and Raila Odinga is at 46% from 5%. The reality is , there are no new votes Ruto will add in his fold so far. All what he needs to do is to ring fence the ones he has all else , Martha Karua will give a section from him. 

Whether the public opinions are conducted each and every hour , the fact is , the reality check will be in the ballot. Infact , I want to beseech Azimio la Umoja one Kenya Alliance coalition party not to take a look on them. Thru should assume this opinion polls don't even exist. Whether legit or not , they should treat them with alot of contempt. Whether the polls are favouring Raila-Karua ticket , they should assume they are still below par but the room for improvement is still big. The spiral of silence is favouring Azimio la Umoja coalition in Mt Kenya region and don't be hoodwinked by the huge crowds Ruto and his entourage pulls in this region. This doesn't translate into votes. GEMA nation are very secretive especially Politically. They know who will serve their interests and the one who is a risk to their interests.

The actual popularity of an opinion doesn't necessarily determine whether it will eventually predominate over opposing views. An opinion can be dominant in public discourse even if a majority of the population actually disagrees with it provided that most people ( falsely) believe that the view is unpopular and refrain from expressing it for fear of being isolated. Public opinion is limited by time and place with a few exemptions , a spiral of silence holds sway over only a single society ( a nation or cultural group) and for only a limited period. When viewed in hindsight or from an outsider's perspective it is sometimes hard to comprehend the agitation and emotional fervour that can accompany a spiral of silence. Though the spiral of silence mat not play a big role in the coming presidential elections , this is because Kenyans are motivated by ethnic arithmetics and balkanization , this time round , the issue of ethnicity as a yardstick of determining how Kenyans will vote in the presidential elections have been thrown under the bus. In Mt Kenya region , this time round , they will vote with their hearts and minds and not emotions and feelings like they did in 2017 general elections. Fact.