HOW RAILA ODINGA CAN LOSE IN AUGUST 9TH AND HOW HE CAN AVOID IT.

 

It is now 80 days shy to the August 9th general elections. Though the official campaign dates have not reached , the frenzy out here is that of full throttle campaign season. The atmosphere is that of elections and campaign. In very place you walk , be it a church , women chamas, entertainment joints , in police cells and jobless corners in shopping centres , there conversation there is about what's happening in KENYA'S political terrain. The conversation is centered between Azimio la Umoja coalition party led by Presidential aspirant Raila Odinga and her running mate Martha Karua SC and UDA between DP William Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua. I have ignored using the name Kenya Kwanza Alliance because it is a mongrel of a Coalition. The reason am saying so is , one party in that Alliance which is UDA has produced both a presidential aspirant and his running. One of its kind in the world.

The recent presidential poll survey results which were released by infotrak shows Raila Odinga and William Ruto are neck to neck. Both enjoyed a plaltry 46%. That's shows the 50+1% will be difficult to attain for both aspirants. Though this is just a poll survey and after scrutinizing it deeper , it was scientific with a minimal error. So , far , the battle lines were drawn thr moment the duo , Raila and Ruto picked their running mates and the fact is , both picked them from the vote rich Mt Kenya region. It is imperative to note that Ruto enjoys a massive support from this region. It is one of the regions he has anchored all his hopes in. A region he feels and believes is the one which will help him occupy State House. For Raila Odinga , this region has traditionally voted aganaist him since 1997 when he tried his stab at vying for presidential seat. 

It is a region which have been demonizing , bastardizing and disparaging him by pulling ethnic card and formenting ethnic contempt between the luo and Kikuyu community. But this time round , the mountain and the lake has reconciled Politically to the detriment of the Highlands. But there is much Raila Odinga must do. Alot. Raila Odinga should rally his political supporters especially in regions that he has been enjoying massive support since 2007 ,2013 and 2017 to come out in large numbers just like the GEMA nation came out back in 2017.  Thuraku Thuraku. They rioted in the ballot not because they ascribed to Jubilee Government but to ensure Raila Odinga won't win that election.

There is this assumption his supporters believe and it is very calamitous if they continue clinging on it. On Ruto's side , he has already prepared his supporters psychologically that the State is planning to rig him out. This is a psychological weapon Ruto is using to whip the emotions of his supporters to come out in large numbers to vote for him so that , with huge number of votes , the State may find it hard to rig him out and assume by doing so , business can be as usual in this Country. The Raila supporters on the other hand are made to believe , they have been winning in the previous elections only that , the so called DEEP STATE  has been rigging them out. Come August 9th , they believe that the same DEEP STATE will come to their rescue. This is a very dangerous reasoning and if not thwarted , it can affect Raila's presidential bid in a big way. Raila's allied MPs , senators , Governors , women rep , MCAs and opinion shapers must work entirely hard to prepare their supporters that , this is the election they must come out in larger numbers than ever before. It should be the last offensive. A do or die tie that , the Thuraku Thuraku slogan must now be preached in all Azimio la Umoja coalition party strong support bases.

In Mt Kenya region , there has been another very destructive narrative that has been propagated since president Uhuru Kenyatta openly declared that his preferred successor is one Raila Odinga. The bromance of the two former arch rivals turned friend and their March 13 Handshake midwifed all the political activities were are seeing today. The narrative that am talking about is that of , Raila Odinga only needs 30% of the mountain votes. This narrative is very destructive. By saying that Raila only needs a paltry 30% of the votes , this will make the residents not turn up in large numbers especially those who were tilted to Azimio la Umoja fold after Raila picked Karua as her running mate. To whip the emotions of the Mountaineers , this narrative should die a natural death. The same energy Raila Odinga is using in other regions should be used in Mt Kenya region too. If they operate with the power of assumptions , they will find themselves in a very precarious situation bearing in mind , Ruto's foot hold in this region is formidable.

There was another card which would have been destructive to Raila Odinga-Karua ticket. That was when President Uhuru Kenyatta intimated that he will join Raila Odinga in his campaign tours especially in Mt Kenya region his political bastion which his DP has forcefully grabbed it from him. This would have necessitated his opponents to use it to hit Raila Odinga hard and soil the gains Raila Odinga has achieved so far in this region. But the good thing is , President Uhuru Kenyatta pulled a fast one when he said he won't join Raila Odinga in his campaign tours but that won't limit him from routing the region to lauch the completed development projects which his regime has rolled out. It is in those tours thst he will talk to his people and tell them why they should follow Tinga-Kaua ticket and not Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

Azimio la Umoja too should ensure they dismantle the narrative that Raila Odinga is a State project. President Uhuru Kenyatta knows better how this narrative nipped his PRESIDENTIAL bid in the bud 20 years ago when he was KANU's flag bearer. Narc coined the narrative that , UHURU KENYATTA was the late president Moi project. KANU stalwarts by then ignored thst narrative. Again , Narc prepared their supporters psychologically that Moi was planning to rig the presidential votes the way he is accused of doing both in 1992 and 1997. Moi ignored and what happened later is a painful political defeat that sent KANU into political oblivion never to recover again.

There is no taking chances if Azimio la Umoja doesn't want to face a surprise deat. Work must be done and opponent should not be ignored. He is not a daft in this game of politics. He is a graduate of Moi school of Realpolitik. Ignore him at your peril. He is both cunning and smart especially on matters Elections. A Realist and a ruthless Machiavelli , Ruto must be checkmated just like he is check mating Azimio's Raila Odinga and president Uhuru Kenyatta. That's my unsolicited advise. God bless KENYA.